It has just been announced that Britons will go to the vote, on whether to stay in the European Union or not, on 23rd June.
My prediction is Britain will leave, that Brexit will become a reality. I know this could well be future Claim Chowder.
The Balance of Power
Europe (including Russia) has always been a group of warring and squabbling nations. To keep the peace, Britain, throughout history, has acted to keep the balance of power.
WW II inspired the creation of the European Union. Now, the contrasting opinions, beliefs, and annoyances are clogged by the molasses of EU bureaucracy. The unified identity of the EU also prevents the kind of eagerness for expansion of any one state. It this organisation that keeps peace in Europe.
But, Britain has never needed these kinds of controls. The strength of the Empire that was, and its profile, has left a mark on us. It still makes us believe we have value, and other countries look up to us, because of our power of influence. The Empire has gone, but the sense of leadership it provided has not disappeared.
It’s this lack of a need for a balancing force that allows the UK to walk away from the European Union.
The most powerful method of attracting desire is to deny access.
Will people want to stop emigrating to the UK? Will companies not want to do business inside of, or with, the UK? Will Europe not want to deal with the UK?
My prediction is that, should Britain leave, things will feel different, technocrats will be busy rebuilding treaties and ways of diplomacy, but there will not be a long-lasting slip into negativity.
People want to come to the UK. Business wants to be done in London and to spread across the rest of the UK. The world wants to listen to Britain’s input in world affairs.
We, as Britons, forget this. We have a huge amount of history. The kind of history other countries lack. People want to see it. They love the pomp and grandeur, the iconic landmarks, and the quaintness we take for granted.
People will still want to enter, even more so, should the border become that bit more difficult to enter.
A Question of Sovereignty
Brits like their opinion, their views, their morality, and they like being able to have their laws reflect those views.
But, the EU limits the kinds of laws a member state can bring into existence. This causes disgruntlement with Brussels, a power that the people of Britain have no say over.
Brits follow the rules. Have you seen us queue? For that reason, we feel the full force of this beaurocracy.
The people of the UK don’t like the fact we don’t have full say over how our country should be run.
This is the main hook of my prediction. This is why there is negativity towards the EU in the United Kingdom.
The Weapon Has Arrived
For all those people who have been frustrated by the way the EU has handcuffed the kinds of decisions the public cares about, the arrival of the EU Referendum will be very welcome.
Finally, they will have an outlet for their anger. It will be a protest vote for all the wrong that Europe has done to their opinions.
They will not be swayed by the arguments of fear-mongering the In campaign will come out with.
I can see positives to both sides of the argument. But, my decision is not yet fully made.
But, I think the people will vote Out.
Kieron Heath is a healthcare technology professional, author, podcaster, and lifestyle blogger. You can download his debut novel, The Marsh, free here.